"Forrester Research predicts that interactive marketing spending will hit $25.6 billion this year -- up 11% from $23.1 billion in 2008, despite being flat, as marketers shift money from traditional media to digital channels.
That total, which also includes search, email, social media and mobile marketing dollars, is expected to more than double to nearly $55 billion by 2014.
A recent Forrester survey of more than 200 marketers found that 60% planned to increase interactive budgets by pulling back spending on traditional outlets. The biggest victim of the trend will be direct mail, which stands to be slashed by 40%. Print will not fare much better, with spending on newspapers expected to be cut by 35%, and magazines by 28%.
By contrast, mobile and social media will enjoy the biggest spending gains in interactive -- increasing nearly 70% to $391 million and almost 60% to $716 million, respectively, in 2009. But the recession's toll on other segments will leave display advertising virtually flat at $7.8 billion, and email up only slightly to $1.2 billion.
Search marketing, which will get a lift from the shift of traditional and online display ad dollars, is expected to grow 14% to $15.4 billion.
A number of market research firms and Wall Street analysts have revised down their estimates of online ad revenue this year as a result of the worsening economy, and are now predicting single-digit growth. Online ad growth fell to 11% last year after recent years of 20% or better gains as the weakening economy finally caught up with Internet spending.
Through 2014, Forrester predicts that interactive marketing will grow 17%, led by social media, projected to grow 34% to $3.1 billion. Mobile will follow, increasing 27% to $1.3 billion; display advertising, 17% to $16.9 billion; search, 15% to $31.6 billion; and email, 11% to $21 billion. "
Excerpts from "Online Media Daily" of MediaPost Publications
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